What makes a property a "safe bet"?

In real estate, people often talk about a property being a "safe bet". The reality is that nothing is guaranteed. No one can promise a property will go up in value, and any prediction should be treated with caution.

What we can look at is what makes a property more resilient over the long term. In my experience, the properties that tend to hold their appeal are usually the ones that are difficult to replicate. They're less vulnerable to oversupply and less affected by changing buyer preferences.

More often than not, that comes down to scarcity.

There are two main types of scarcity. The first is created by rules and regulations. For example, some neighbourhoods are protected by land covenants that limit what can be built. Unlike zoning rules, which can change over time, covenants are attached to the title and can preserve the character, privacy and outlook of an area for years to come. In locations where intensification is becoming more common, these pockets can remain largely unchanged while the surrounding suburbs evolve.

The second type is created by the property itself. Certain styles of housing become rarer simply because developers no longer build them in large numbers. Standalone, single-level homes are a good example. They require more land per dwelling, and as land values increase, higher-density housing often makes more financial sense for developers. As a result, fewer of these homes are being built, even though there remains a steady pool of buyers who prefer them, including downsizers, young families and retirees.

The principle behind both examples is straightforward. When a property is difficult to reproduce, supply naturally becomes limited. If demand remains steady, or increases over time, those properties often prove more resilient than housing types that can be delivered in large volumes.

So when people describe a property as a "safe bet", it shouldn't be taken as a guarantee of capital growth. A better way to think about it is that certain properties have characteristics that may help them hold their value more effectively than others, particularly during changing market conditions.